May Global Temperature Update
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May 2017, at +0.88C relative to the 1951-1980 mean, was the second warmest Mayin the period of instrumental data, only 0.05C cooler than May 2016 record high (0.93C).
ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) in the tropical Pacific are now near neutral, while the first half of 2016 was affected by the strong 2015-2016 El Nino. Given present and projected ENSO conditions (neutral or slightly positive) it can be projected that 2017 as a whole is likely to be the second warmest year in the instrumental record, not much cooler than 2016.
Note: our “Young People’s Burden” paper has been accepted for publication in Earth System Dynamics. We thank the editor and reviewers for assistance in producing a much improved version of the paper, which we will make available with discussion on www.columbia.edu/~jeh1 as soon as it is published (within a few weeks).